IRAQ:
THE REALITIES OF SANCTIONS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR WAR
Dr. Eric Herring
University of Bristol
October 2002
Structure
of talk
Background
and overview
Before
bombing and sanctions
Impact
of bombing and sanctions
How
the sanctions work
Why
are the sanctions still in place?
The
current crisis
What
the policy should be
Information
sources
Background
and overview
Aug
1990: Iraq invaded Kuwait
Aug
1990: UN imposed economic sanctions
Traceable state, personal assets frozen
All Iraqi exports banned
All foreign investment in Iraq banned
Humanitarian supplies allowed, but
very
narrowly defined
Iraq
lacked money to buy them
1991:
US-led UN coalition bombed Iraq and used force to drive it out of Kuwait
UN Security Council Resolution (SCR)
687 required Iraq to (among
other things)
Give up medium/long range ballistic missiles,
chemical and biological weapons, nuclear weapon project
Accept permanent monitoring of its
disarmament of these capabilities
Recognise Kuwait
Pay compensation for invasion of Kuwait
Economic
sanctions to remain in place until compliance with SCR 687
Partial
lifting of sanctions to reward partial compliance allowed, but has not happened
1996, UN and Iraq
agreed Oil For Food (OFF) programme
Iraq
allowed to export oil
Money
goes to UN-controlled account
13%
for humanitarian supplies for North of Iraq: programme implemented by UN
53%
for humanitarian supplies for Centre and South: programme implemented by Govt
of Iraq with UN supervision
30%
for compensation claims against Iraq (later cut to 25% with 5% to Centre,
South)
2% for
UN costs
Before
bombing and sanctions
1638-1918: Part of
Ottoman Empire
1918: Under British
control as a League of Nations mandate territory
1927: oil discovered in
Iraq
1932: independent, but
oil wealth controlled by British-controlled Iraqi Petroleum Company (IPC),
people extremely poor
1958: military-led
revolution, incl. Saddam
1972: IPC nationalised:
Saddam behind it
1979: Saddam Hussein
takes full power
Saddam sadistically
brutal against dissent but 'the Iraqi welfare state was, until recently, among
the most comprehensive and generous in the Arab world' (The Economist).
Used oil wealth not
only for weapons, costly wars (esp. with Iran): also for first time in Iraqi
history spent it on the people: transformed Iraq free health care, sanitation,
clean water, free education, womens rights
Iraqis educated abroad
and happy to return
Heavily dependent on
high tech imports and imported 70-85% of its food
Impact
of bombing and sanctions
UN
report 1991: 'The recent conflict has wrought near-apocalyptic results upon the
economic infrastructure of what had been, until January 1991, a rather highly
urbanized and mechanized society. ... Iraq has, for some time to come, been
relegated to a pre-industrial age, but with all the disabilities of a
post-industrial dependency on an intensive use of energy and technology'
Enormous
increase in civilian death rate known from outset in 1991
UN Childrens Fund (UNICEF) estimates 500,000
deaths of children under 5 above anticipated normal rate 1991-98
Around 1 million Iraqi deaths in total
Poverty, illiteracy, disease levels
have leapt to those of poorer Third World
Streets lined with shoeshine boys,
begging girls and women
Isolation
from outside world psychologically devastating for a well-travelled, urbane
society
UN
does not control borders with Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, so goods can
come in illegally with ease, but most people cannot buy them
Everything
crumbling after nearly 12 years of sanctions, except for bubbles of newness
Iraqi
food rationing system before and during OFF vital in preventing worse
catastrophe and praised by UN as second to none
The
central problem now is extreme poverty: cant be addressed without lifting the
comprehensive sanctions
OFF
helping significantly, but utterly inadequate: can see this by looking at how
the sanctions work
How the
sanctions work
Iraq
decides an OFF distribution plan
Iraq
agrees contract with supplier
Supplier
tries to get export licence from own government
Iraq
submits contract to UN for approval
$5.3
bn of OFF contracts on hold (ie being delayed, sometimes indefinitely) at UN)
Value
of contracts on hold: 15% of health contracts, 20% oil spares, 40% electricity,
50% water/sanitation, 30% agriculture, 40% education, 35% telecommunications
and transport, 5% housing, 90% special allocation for the most vulnerable
Holds
incredibly damaging to Iraqi and UN humanitarian planning
US
imposes 90% holds, UK remaining 10%
US and
UK claim dual use concerns (ie civilian goods might be used for military
purposes) for OFF goods
Spurious,
as UN has hundreds of observers in Iraq checking: I call them potential
weapons inspectors
UN
reports high level of Iraqi cooperation with observers, no diversion of any
goods
Holds
actually aimed at disrupting recovery of Iraqi economy
Holds
system being phased out, but no money for many approved contracts
OFF in
financial crisis due to Iraqi oil production problems, low oil prices, and UN
controls on oil pricing to prevent under-the-table payments to Iraq
No
money for $1.6 bn of approved contracts or for further $5.3 bn on hold
Iraqs
total OFF oil exports $51bn in five years since OFF agreed
OFF
contracts UN approved: $32.2 bn
If
money for an approved item, process can have taken so long that supplier pulls
out: Iraq has to start all over again
Total
OFF goods arrivals in 5 years: $820 per person to cover everything
Per
person per month this is $6 food, $1.25 food handling, $1.25 medicine, $1.23
electricity, $0.80 water and sanitation, $1.58 agriculture $0.30 education,
$0.43 telecommunications and transport, $0.91 housing
Has to
pay for current spending AND capital spending in shattered economy
Holds
on complementary items (e.g. on medicine storage facilities) undermine puny
value of items delivered
US
wont allow Iraq commercial protection rights, so cant sue suppliers who
deliver useless goods
Iraqi
govt smuggles $0.5 bn of oil each year: this and open borders vital lifelines
for ordinary Iraqis, not just elite
Compensation
awarded against Iraq: $36 bn so far (exceeds value of OFF contracts approved),
$217 bn more being considered
Iraqi
debt (incl. Compensation) $200 bn (increasing by compound interest): sanctions
prevent any payments
Ranks
with Rwanda, Sudan, Sierra Leone in debt to exports ratio
Debt
will be used to keep Iraq among poorest in world even after sanctions
Why are
sanctions still in place?
Iraq
has not complied with UN SCR 986?
Reality:
Iraq complied
extensively, even if very grudgingly
Rolf Ekeus, Chairman of UN weapons
inspectors 1991-97: in all areas we have
eliminated Iraqs capabilities fundamentally.
Complete
elimination of nuclear weapon programme
Almost
complete elimination of chemical weapon and medium/long range ballistic missile
programmes
Biological
weapon programme mostly eliminated
Monitoring
being developed
Recognised
Kuwait
Paying
compensation
US
response?
US
forced weapons inspectors to withdraw in Dec 98: Iraq did NOT expel them
US and
UK bombed Iraq illegally (no Security Council authorisation) in 1998 for
non-compliance (Operation Desert Fox)
Until
9/02 Iraq refused to allow weapons inspectors related to SCR 986 back in: still
cooperates fully with International Atomic Energy Agency weapons inspectors
(and the potential weapons inspectors referred to earlier)
If
disarming Iraq is US priority, then its policy has been irrational and
counter-productive
US
official policy: overthrow of Saddam Hussein, even though this violates the UN
resolutions with which Iraq is meant to comply
US
determined to keep sanctions for as long as hes in power, hence feared the
fact that Iraq was nearing compliance in 1998. Disarmed Iraq not enough for US
US
Ambassador to the UN under Clinton (subsequently US Secretary of State)
Madeleine Albright in 1997: We do not agree with the nations who argue that if
Iraq complies with its obligations concerning weapons of mass destruction,
sanctions should be lifted.
US
overthrow policy undermines UN disarmament policy because Iraq incentives to
comply fully are undermined if no reward
They
know we own their country
we dictate the way they live and talk. And thats
the great thing about America right now. Its a good thing, especially when
theres a lot of oil out there we need. Brigadier-General William Looney, US
Air Force, director of the bombing of Iraq.
Lesley
Stahl interview with Albright on CBS television 1996
Stahl:
We have heard that a half a million children have died ... is the price worth
it?
Albright:
I think this is a very hard choice, but the price - we think the price is
worth it.
UN
Humanitarian Coordinator in Iraq Denis Halliday: I am resigning because the
policy of economic sanctions is totally bankrupt. We are in the process of
destroying an entire society
I had been instructed to implement a policy that
satisfies the definition of genocide: a deliberate policy that has effectively
killed well over a million individuals, children and adults.
The
current crisis
Sanctions
slowly crumbling
more
goods in, more oil smuggled out
US
idea in 2001 of sealing Iraqs borders got nowhere
9/11
attacks: US sense of extreme urgency about any potential threats
US
military success in Afghanistan
US
govt agree on weak Iraq, but now upper hand for those advocating for many years
war to remove Saddam Hussein
Expect
to be misled and misinformed about basic facts
Myth:
US priority is disarming Iraq
Reality:
US preventing disarmament of Iraq to hang onto overthrow policy
Myth:
weapons inspectors not allowed access to presidential palaces
Reality:
UN has agreements with Iraq for such access, Iraq complied, US ignored
provisions to provoke crises
Myth:
Iraqi concerns on weapons inspectors solely about hiding weapons
Reality:
US used previous UN weapons inspections to spy on Iraq, gather info for
assassination and bombing plans.
US
refuses to cooperate with Biological Weapons Convention inspections: says they
could be used to spy
US
refuses to cooperate with Chemical Weapons Convention inspectors from Cuba and
Iran
Myth:
Iraq only cooperates if force is being threatened
Reality:
Iraq cooperates if it expects cooperation to be rewarded.
Iraq
rational to revive weapons programmes if facing permanent sanctions, overthrow
policy, US attack
Have
to convince Iraq that cooperation will lead to lifting of sanctions and US
being prevented from implementing its overthrow policy
Myth: Iraq an urgent threat
Reality: Iraq too crippled for conventional attack on
neighbours
Nuclear weapon programme gone
Biological weapons (BW) and chemical weapons (CW) it retains
not capable of mass destruction
CW use on Kurds, Iranians, but US, UK continued economic,
military support
CW use on US, UK forces suicidal. Only likely as a desperate
act if invaded
If it IS urgent threat, back UN disarmament
Myth:
tough new UN resolution needed to ensure Iraq will disarm
Reality:
Iraq needs reassurance that disarmament will mean no sanctions or overthrow
US
wants war to overthrow Saddam Hussein: looking for an excuse
US
trying to prevent return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq
US
wants a UN resolution that would be impossible for Iraq to accept
What the policy should be
Lift sanctions causing humanitarian disaster
Lift remaining sanctions if Iraq disarms
Stop US preventing disarmament of Iraq
Demand US stop violating UN resolutions with its overthrow
policy
Unlike past , dont sell weapons and technologies most
useful for weapons
Address weapon programmes of Israel and others: unrealistic
to expect Iraq to accept them indefinitely without response
Reassess Iraqi
debt and compensation
US and Arab
governments and institutions chose to fund Saddams crimes and follies
Why should
ordinary Iraqis be made to pay when they had no choice?
Work to ensure own
governments no longer able to build up such dictators only to knock them down
when they step out of line
Information
sources
John
Pilger, The New Rulers of the World (Verso 2002), ch. 2
Said
Aburish, Saddam Hussein: The Politics of Revenge (Bloomsbury 2000)
Counter-dossier
by Alan Simpson, MP and Dr. Glen Rangwala The Dishonest Case for War Against
Iraq http://www.traprockpeace.org/counter-dossier.html