Despite the two victories that have catapulted Colin McRae back into contention for this year's WRC championship, the Scot's future with the Ford team still hangs in the balance. With his contract up at the end of the season it is tempting to suggest that the 1995 World Champion will seek pastures new if 2002 turns out to be another frustrating. Unfortunately, after Peugeot's dominant performance on the Rally Finland it probably will be. Therefore where could McRae go and how would it affect his chances of adding to his 95 World title?
First and foremost, McRae's decision to switch will be heavily determined by the shape of the 2003 calendar. In relative terms, more rallies this season have suited the merits of the Peugeots than McRae's Ford. Tarmac events and smooth gravel rallies play into the hands of the abnormally compact, light and well-handling 206's. In contrast, the Focus' strengths lie in its strength and the occasional superior performance of its Pirelli tires. But with events like the Safari rally becoming tamer each season as the influence of TV increases, the strengths of the 206's are likely to count for more.
Lightweight and tidy 'pocket rockets' like the 206 will be more dominant next season if the trend continues towards shorter, more compact rallies. For McRae this is likely to offer few alternatives but the potential berth at Citroen.
The Xsara has shown on its limited outings in previous seasons and during 2002 that it could be a match for the 206. On tarmac events it is about the only thing capable of giving Peugeot a real challenge and Sebastien Loeb's performance on the Monte Carlo Rally hints at the cars latent ability on challenging and changeable surfaces. So while it may not be the complete package this season, with McRae at the wheel next year it could be a serious contender.
This is related to the fact Citroen and McRae bring a different set of strengths to the partnership. McRae is experienced and fast and could develop the car, especially on loose surfaces where it lacks pace. The Xsara is very quick on sealed surfaces where McRae's style is not well-suited, giving him less of a handicap. Contrast that with the current McRae/Focus combination where both car and driver have their strengths in similar areas that therefore leave them vulnerable on events such as Corsica (i.e. driver who doesn't enjoy the surface and car that is too big to be quick on it anyway).
The second key issue is to do with current driver line-ups and in particular the distribution of the WRC's biggest names.
Peugeot have two big names in Burns and Gronholm, ably assisted by the ever improving Rovanpera and Panizzi. They therefore have no need to add McRae to the mixture although it would be a fantastic prospect to pit three of the best against each other in equal cars. (it would of course never be as simple as this because there would be constant arguments and fights over who gets the development parts and who does what testing etc.) Peugeot chief Provera knows this and will most likely be thinking why rock the boat that will most likely sail to the 2002 Drivers and Manufacturers championships. Prodrive (Subaru) have Makkinen and future champion Solberg. So unless Makinnen retires they will not want McRae and will be unable to afford him unless they secure more funding from Subaru HQ or a major title sponsor. That leaves McRae with the option of staying at Ford or switching to Citroen or Mitsubishi.
Mitsubishi can be discounted immediately because of the ghastly performance of the Lancer so far this season. McRae does not have enough seasons left to start developing a new car almost from scratch. Which therefore leads back once again to Citroen which is the most likely option again for a number of additional commercial and development reasons.
Citroen need a big name star to spearhead their campaign and someone who can develop the car on the surfaces where its performance is below par, as I mentioned above. McRae is the perfect choice, giving the brand exposure well beyond its current levels and a real opportunity of turning the Xsara into a WRC contender.
Thirdly, and finally, Citroen have already tried unsuccessfully to sign McRae which shows that they know he is the man they need. At the time McRae decided to stay with Ford to reap the expected benefits of his development work with the Focus. This was the right decision at the time, but the WRC picture has changed and the Focus is too big and too heavy to be able to compete this season, never mind next. Therefore if McRae does pilot the Xsara, a proven winner on tarmac and with obvious potential, he may take one step back but it will prove to be two forward from next season onwards. This is simply because the shape of the WRC is changing and will conspire to prevent the Focus ever winning the championship (unless Peugeot quit).
So it is set then, McRae to Citroen. But as with all things that on paper seem too good to be true there is a catch that could scupper everything; Peugeot. Given that Citroen is the minor brand to Peugeot, it may be that executives from PSA Peugeot Citroen (the parent company of both brands) will prevent Citroen from mounting a serious challenge. Peugeot could be about to start a period of continued success in the WRC, so why damage their chances of achieving such sustained success? Hopefully those nice people at PSA Peugeot Citroen will see it differently and sign the Flying Scotsman.
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